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Acquiring Brees' heir: who and how?

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4 hours ago, Drew said:

The HOF QB numbers are:

1st round: 15

2nd round: 3

3rd round: 3

4th round: 2

5th round: 1

6th and 7th round: 0

Very good information. Thanks Drew.

I made a similar post awhile back about Rb's. If you want a great one,you better be willing to spend a first rounder on one. Kamara and Terrlel Davis are exceptions. 

Emmitt Smith, 18,355

Walter Payton, 16,726

Barry Sanders, 15,269

Curtis Martin, 14,101

LaDainian Tomlinson, 13,684

Jerome Bettis, 13,662

Eric Dickerson, 13,259

Frank Gore, 13,065

Tony Dorsett, 12,739

Jim Brown, 12,312

Marshall Faulk, 12,279

Edgerrin James, 12,246

Marcus Allen, 12,243

Franco Harris, 12,120

Thurman Thomas, 12,074

Adrian Peterson, 11,747 

 

These are the top 16 in rushing yards. The only ones not drafted in the first were Frank Gore,Curtis Martin,and Thurman Thomas. Gore and Thomas would have been first rounders if not for injury concerns coming out of college. 

 

I also owe Frank Gore an apology. I didn't believe he was a hall of famer during his time with the Niners. He's first ballot now. His updated total is     14,026. There is no way the HOF voters can deny those numbers. If he plays this year,he'll be 4th all time. 

 

Edited by faceman

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Face, I made an excel sheet of the HOF players with the round they were drafted in so I drilled down the RB as well.  As you stated, the disparity is more drastic for RB.

1st round: 26

2nd round: 4

3rd round: 1

4th and 5th round: 0

6th round: 1

7th round: 1

8th and later: 2

UDFA: 2

 

BTW, I didn't include it in the earlier post but for QBs their were 4 drafted 8th round or later and 2 were UDFA.   

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7 minutes ago, Drew said:

Face, I made an excel sheet of the HOF players with the round they were drafted in so I drilled down the RB as well.  As you stated, the disparity is more drastic for RB.

1st round: 26

2nd round: 4

3rd round: 1

4th and 5th round: 0

6th round: 1

7th round: 1

8th and later: 2

UDFA: 2

 

BTW, I didn't include it in the earlier post but for QBs their were 4 drafted 8th round or later and 2 were UDFA.   

The work you did putting these stats together is greatly appreciated. Thanks. 

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50 minutes ago, Drew said:

Face, I made an excel sheet of the HOF players with the round they were drafted in so I drilled down the RB as well.  As you stated, the disparity is more drastic for RB.

1st round: 26

2nd round: 4

3rd round: 1

4th and 5th round: 0

6th round: 1

7th round: 1

8th and later: 2

UDFA: 2

 

BTW, I didn't include it in the earlier post but for QBs their were 4 drafted 8th round or later and 2 were UDFA.   

Thanks for the hard work Drew. I deeply appreciate it

 

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One thing to remember is that we're one of a few teams who aren't in the 'very needy' position.  So long as we're going with Brees, we're like New England with Brady and the Giants with Eli.  We're certainly in the QB sweepstakes, but are very far back in the pecking order to be able to realistically attain one othese guys.  So let's look at the teams and numbers.

Cleveland, Denver, Jets, Arizona, and Buffalo all have QB in the "must" department.  I think Miami, the Giants and Jacksonville all want to address the position.  I think we're willing to be more significant players in the Draft than we would be for the Free Agents.  I think New England has a need similar to us, but is far less willing to be a shifter and move up for one in the Draft.  I'm not going to count Minnesota either because even if they make a play for a guy like Cousins, I think that means they let a guy like Keenum walk.  So from a numbers perspective, that one washes out.

So we've got 8 teams with a need and only Jacksonville picks later than us.  At the top of the FAs is obviously Cousins.  It gets a little tricky with guys like Bradford (injury) or A.J. McCarron (not nearly enough starting experience to be counted on as 'the guy').  So if a team invests in Bradford, McCarron, even Keenum or Foles, said team could still double up with a draft pick to go along with that FA.  An item that makes it difficult for us to move up is teams with much greater fire power than us, specifically Buffalo already having two picks in the 1st round this year.  Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield all seem locks to get drafted in the top 20.

Just looking at the low hanging fruit, you've got 5 teams with desperate need and 5 QBs that appear to be "the guy" such a team would be investing in.  We can't catch any of those 5 teams in the draft unless we possibly jumped in front of the Cardinals, but that means their hopefuls would be gone.  So unless we highly evaluated a guy they didn't like, hard to imagine us getting over on them.

What I've written so far might be a little scattered, but this is an inexact science and we don't know how high teams will evaluate certain QB options.  When I look at it though, it appears Cleveland, Denver, Jets, Arizona and Buffalo all have the ammunition to land their guy.  As well as the Giants if they are ready to grab the future after Eli.  The rest are probably going to have to settle, get a FA who will compete for the starting job, or look into the second tier of QBs in the draft.  

The next tier of guys we could consider are Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Lamar Jackson.  I don't know fellas.  At first glance, it seems like there's a ton of QB power to become available this offseason.  Upon further inspection, no one is going to count on Bradford to be 'the guy' unless they have to and other teams in much better position for the top 4 draft QBs.  I think it's very unlikely we're moving up high this year above other teams unless a guy slips that we still really like.  That potentially could happen if Mayfield slips out of the top 15, if Allen is considered to need too much work, etc. 

Foles entering the fray could be an interesting wild card.  Even for our Saints.  Think about that.  Good friends with Brees, both went to the same high school, unbelievable offense to get into with young talent at major league positions, won't have to sit behind Brees for too long.  He just now turned 29.  

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5 hours ago, Dru said:

One thing to remember is that we're one of a few teams who aren't in the 'very needy' position.  So long as we're going with Brees, we're like New England with Brady and the Giants with Eli.  We're certainly in the QB sweepstakes, but are very far back in the pecking order to be able to realistically attain one othese guys.  So let's look at the teams and numbers.

Cleveland, Denver, Jets, Arizona, and Buffalo all have QB in the "must" department.  I think Miami, the Giants and Jacksonville all want to address the position.  I think we're willing to be more significant players in the Draft than we would be for the Free Agents.  I think New England has a need similar to us, but is far less willing to be a shifter and move up for one in the Draft.  I'm not going to count Minnesota either because even if they make a play for a guy like Cousins, I think that means they let a guy like Keenum walk.  So from a numbers perspective, that one washes out.

So we've got 8 teams with a need and only Jacksonville picks later than us.  At the top of the FAs is obviously Cousins.  It gets a little tricky with guys like Bradford (injury) or A.J. McCarron (not nearly enough starting experience to be counted on as 'the guy').  So if a team invests in Bradford, McCarron, even Keenum or Foles, said team could still double up with a draft pick to go along with that FA.  An item that makes it difficult for us to move up is teams with much greater fire power than us, specifically Buffalo already having two picks in the 1st round this year.  Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield all seem locks to get drafted in the top 20.

Just looking at the low hanging fruit, you've got 5 teams with desperate need and 5 QBs that appear to be "the guy" such a team would be investing in.  We can't catch any of those 5 teams in the draft unless we possibly jumped in front of the Cardinals, but that means their hopefuls would be gone.  So unless we highly evaluated a guy they didn't like, hard to imagine us getting over on them.

What I've written so far might be a little scattered, but this is an inexact science and we don't know how high teams will evaluate certain QB options.  When I look at it though, it appears Cleveland, Denver, Jets, Arizona and Buffalo all have the ammunition to land their guy.  As well as the Giants if they are ready to grab the future after Eli.  The rest are probably going to have to settle, get a FA who will compete for the starting job, or look into the second tier of QBs in the draft.  

The next tier of guys we could consider are Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Lamar Jackson.  I don't know fellas.  At first glance, it seems like there's a ton of QB power to become available this offseason.  Upon further inspection, no one is going to count on Bradford to be 'the guy' unless they have to and other teams in much better position for the top 4 draft QBs.  I think it's very unlikely we're moving up high this year above other teams unless a guy slips that we still really like.  That potentially could happen if Mayfield slips out of the top 15, if Allen is considered to need too much work, etc. 

Foles entering the fray could be an interesting wild card.  Even for our Saints.  Think about that.  Good friends with Brees, both went to the same high school, unbelievable offense to get into with young talent at major league positions, won't have to sit behind Brees for too long.  He just now turned 29.  

I'd be ecstatic to grab Foles (at the right price).  I also look at Bradford as potentially being a medium risk/high reward kind of guy much like Brees was when we signed him. The same might also be said for Tannehill. It'll be interesting to see what the Dolphins do in the wake of them signing Captain Underwhelming - err, I mean Cutler.

At the end of the day, I really really wish this offseason was happening either next year or the year after. We need depth and we're completely farked next year if something happens to Cam Jordan or we see injuries in our D-backfield again like we did this year.

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Great analysis Dru. The FO will have contingency plans to capitalise on any one of the top 4/5 QBs slipping in the 1st round. If they feel the value is there, they could pull the trigger on a trade, which I imagine would mean giving up future picks. I just don't see the saints competing if the top 4 are drafted where they are expected. That trickles down to guys like Jackson going to a team like Arizona. Not worth the trade-up for any of those top 5 if it plays out like that.

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