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Bonckers

Arden Key going pro

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No surprise here.  The injuries and weight issues are not big deals to me.  The kid had to will himself to gain weight prior to his freshman season and he tried to do it again before this 2017 season.  That probably had a great deal to do with his injuries.  Both times he did it at home with his father, the first time with good results, this last time with injuries.  I don't think it's a problem going forward once he gets with a NFL club that will keep him on a regiment and have experts helping him.

The greater issue is where his head is at and what has transpired during his career in Baton Rouge.  There's going to be a lot of questions for him at the combine and pre-draft interviews.  I still see him going somewhere between 5 and 20 barring some really negative information injurywise or attitude.

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On 1/4/2018 at 0:20 PM, Dru said:

The greater issue is where his head is at and what has transpired during his career in Baton Rouge.  There's going to be a lot of questions for him at the combine and pre-draft interviews.  I still see him going somewhere between 5 and 20 barring some really negative information injurywise or attitude.

There will be questions revolving around his desire, work ethic & drug usage. Just remember the leaks about Honey Badger & Jalen Collins concerning multiple failed drug tests after leaving LSU. Key will be another. His talent is not the question. He is instant added pass rush where ever he goes but the comparison I will use concerning Key is Aldon Smith both talent & off the field wise.

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On 1/4/2018 at 0:20 PM, Dru said:

The greater issue is where his head is at and what has transpired during his career in Baton Rouge.  There's going to be a lot of questions for him at the combine and pre-draft interviews.  I still see him going somewhere between 5 and 20 barring some really negative information injurywise or attitude.

I wouldn't mind getting him, but unfortunately we'll be picking 32nd this year.

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From Walter Football concerning Arden Key. I know it's meaningless but Mel Kiper doesn't even have Key being drafted in the 1st round at the moment.

Arden Key*, DE, LSU 
Height: 6-5. Weight: 260. 
Projected 40 Time: 4.70. 
Projected Round (2018): 1-2. 

1/13/18: Team sources still have Key as high first-rounder and think he could be a devastating pass-rusher in the NFL. In a survey of league sources, Key was considered to be among the elite talents of this draft class. However, teams have major off-the-field concerns with Key and think they could cause him to slide in the 2018 NFL Draft. While there are concerns, scouts also say that Key loves football and has worked on his own with pass-rushing guru Chuck Smith to develop his skills. Key has to interview extremely well in order to be a high pick. 

http://walterfootball.com/draft2018DE.php

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I've said this numerous times in years past. I'm very wary of players who put on 30+ lbs in a single year. It's the type of growth spurt you see in a 15 year old HS Sophomore. Key could be a late bloomer,but he'd be a rare exception. Science says most players reach their natural weight before graduating HS. 

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There is no way in the world I'm interested in Arden Key. I think he will be out of the league in 3 years. He had one really good year and it appears his frame is not suited to carry the weight necessary to succeed in the NFL. And then as Brod points out all the off the field concerns....no thanks...I'm all for drafting an edge rusher high if the right one is there but that guy is definately not Arden Key...

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On 1/20/2018 at 6:07 AM, faceman said:

I've said this numerous times in years past. I'm very wary of players who put on 30+ lbs in a single year. It's the type of growth spurt you see in a 15 year old HS Sophomore. Key could be a late bloomer,but he'd be a rare exception. Science says most players reach their natural weight before graduating HS. 

Every year we see players bulk up heading into the draft. We see also see it for players in their 1st & 2nd years coming out of high school. With modern sports medicine, diet & weight training, it's not as uncommon as you think it is. The most obvious example in sports is Lebron James in comparison to when he first entered the NBA fresh out of high school to the body he has had for the past several seasons now.

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Yeah Brod, but Lebron added that over time, not in one off season. Yes he has grown tremendously since he entered the league, but not over night. 

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On 1/20/2018 at 6:07 AM, faceman said:

I've said this numerous times in years past. I'm very wary of players who put on 30+ lbs in a single year. It's the type of growth spurt you see in a 15 year old HS Sophomore. Key could be a late bloomer,but he'd be a rare exception. Science says most players reach their natural weight before graduating HS. 

 

That added weight he gained at LSU wasn't productive. It was fat and it hindered him until he burned it off and leaned down quite a bit.

The joke around the LSU fans has been Arden went pro after the Citrus Bowl -- against Louisville.

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2 hours ago, sfidc2 said:

At 230-240 he is Mingo Part 2....no thanks

I think he's different than Mingo in a lot of ways, some good, some bad.  For what Key can be at the NFL level, I think Brod's comparison to Aldon Smith is more appropriate.  Also, for the good and the bad.

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I see Key as a Dwight Freeney type of player and will probably have a similar specialized role in the NFL. 

The biggest difference between Key and Mingo in my opinion is that Key has shown a focus and dedication to working to become an NFL player whereas Mingo had an attitude that he was a 'chosen one' in terms of talent and couldn't give 2 didley-poos about the dedication side of the game.

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“My junior year wasn’t the best year and it didn’t sit well with me but guess what? I learned a lot of life lessons and blessed I went through what I went through! #GodsPlan,” Key wrote.

Speaking with NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, one anonymous NFL executive described Key as the most polarizing player in the class for LSU.

“We had guys who had huge grades on him coming into the season and they plummeted during the season,” the executive told Jeremiah. “We’re still trying to sort him out.”

Even ESPN’s Mel Kiper has said that he doesn’t see Key hearing his name called in the first round, calling him more of a second-round pick. Nonetheless, SEC Country’s mock draft has Key going with the No. 11 overall pick to the Miami Dolphins.

Key is one of 10 Tigers invited to participate in the 2018 NFL Combine in Indianapolis.

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On ‎01‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 7:53 AM, herb said:

I see Key as a Dwight Freeney type of player and will probably have a similar specialized role in the NFL. 

The biggest difference between Key and Mingo in my opinion is that Key has shown a focus and dedication to working to become an NFL player whereas Mingo had an attitude that he was a 'chosen one' in terms of talent and couldn't give 2 didley-poos about the dedication side of the game.

Really, I don't see that at all. Freeney was 270lbs a prototypical sized DE...Key will struggle to maintain his speed and quickness at 250. To me there is really no comparison. I thought the same thing about Bark Mingo...I don't see Key making much of an impact in the NFL but I've been wrong before....

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29 minutes ago, sfidc2 said:

Really, I don't see that at all. Freeney was 270lbs a prototypical sized DE...Key will struggle to maintain his speed and quickness at 250. To me there is really no comparison. I thought the same thing about Bark Mingo...I don't see Key making much of an impact in the NFL but I've been wrong before....

That is a very good point. Even Dion Jordan was light, and didn't produce. Bruce Irvin, and Von Miller are the only litter players I saw make it work, and they both play LB and DE. They were both just under 250, and played in 4-3 defenses coming out. 

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On 2/22/2018 at 0:18 PM, sfidc2 said:

Really, I don't see that at all. Freeney was 270lbs a prototypical sized DE...Key will struggle to maintain his speed and quickness at 250. To me there is really no comparison. I thought the same thing about Bark Mingo...I don't see Key making much of an impact in the NFL but I've been wrong before....

Key is 6'6" and 265 pounds:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/arden-key?id=2560074

Freeney was like 6'1" and 266 pounds, so he was more "compact" than Key is.

Freeney's combine stats before he put on his "NFL weight":

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=5925

Player Info

First Name: Dwight
Last Name: Freeney
Nickname:  
Position: DE
College: Syracuse
Draft Class: 2002
Draft Age: 22.2

Player Dimensions

Height: 72.90 inches
Weight: 266 pounds
BMI: 36.04
Arm Length: 32.13 inches
Hand Size: 10.00 inches
Front Shoulder: (N/A) inches
Back Shoulder: (N/A) inches
Edited by herb

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17 hours ago, herb said:

Key is 6'6" and 265 pounds:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/arden-key?id=2560074

Freeney was like 6'1" and 266 pounds, so he was more "compact" than Key is.

Freeney's combine stats before he put on his "NFL weight":

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=5925

Player Info

First Name: Dwight
Last Name: Freeney
Nickname:  
Position: DE
College: Syracuse
Draft Class: 2002
Draft Age: 22.2

Player Dimensions

Height: 72.90 inches
Weight: 266 pounds
BMI: 36.04
Arm Length: 32.13 inches
Hand Size: 10.00 inches
Front Shoulder: (N/A) inches
Back Shoulder: (N/A) inches

Yeah, I see that weight is what is listed by LSU. Rotoworld has him listed at 255 which i think is closer to the truth. But the point I'm trying to make is that he played his best football weighing 238lbs (his sophomore year). He was ineffective at 255 or 265 whichever weight you choose to believe. You can make the argument that his shoulder injury may have contributed to his decline in play but it was very clear to me that he didn't have the same explosive quickness that he did as a sophomore playing at 238. I really don't think he will have a very long or successful career in the NFL but thats just....like...my... opinion....man.....

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Brod may check in and back this up. The weight gain was due to pizza and beer,and not weight training. I don't believe Key has the genetics to carry 270 lbs on a muscular frame. That's usually determined before an athlete graduates HS. 

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8 minutes ago, faceman said:

Brod may check in and back this up. The weight gain was due to pizza and beer,and not weight training. I don't believe Key has the genetics to carry 270 lbs on a muscular frame. That's usually determined before an athlete graduates HS. 

It wasn't just pizza & beer that aided in Key's weight gain. Look, I think Key from a physical standpoint is pure pass rushing monster when he is in shape & motivated. On the otherhand there are serious questions surrounding keeping him motivated, work ethic & discipline principles off the field. I wouldn't touch him until after the 3rd round & I'm dead serious. I'm not liking what I'm hearing about Key around Baton Rouge in terms of his off the field behavior. Matter of fact, word is spreading amongst the scouting community. I posted Walter football's report on Key a few months back. See my above post at the beginning of this thread. Since then they have updated his profile with pretty harsh comparisons concerning Key's off the field problems. Honestly, with current chemistry of the lockeroom, I would pass on Key altogether in any round despite how talented is. We are seeing this with Marcus Peters right now.

Arden Key*, DE, LSU 
Height: 6-5. Weight: 260. 
Projected 40 Time: 4.70. 
Projected Round (2018): 1-3. 

2/24/18: Team sources think Key has high first-round talent and that he could be a devastating pass-rusher in the NFL. In a survey of league sources, Key was considered to be among the elite talents of this draft class. However, teams have major off-the-field concerns with Key and think they could cause him to slide in the 2018 NFL Draft. Key's off-the-field issues are similiar to Randy Gregory or Tim Williams.  While there are concerns, scouts also say that Key loves football and has worked on his own with pass-rushing guru Chuck Smith to develop his skills. Key has to interview extremely well in order to be a high pick, and team sources feel that Key has a much shot at panning out in the NFL if he goes to a secluded team like Green Bay or Buffalo to help keep him out of trouble. 

Read more: http://walterfootball.com/draft2018DE.php#ixzz585DCXDCc

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6 hours ago, sfidc2 said:

Yeah, I see that weight is what is listed by LSU. Rotoworld has him listed at 255 which i think is closer to the truth. But the point I'm trying to make is that he played his best football weighing 238lbs (his sophomore year). He was ineffective at 255 or 265 whichever weight you choose to believe. You can make the argument that his shoulder injury may have contributed to his decline in play but it was very clear to me that he didn't have the same explosive quickness that he did as a sophomore playing at 238. I really don't think he will have a very long or successful career in the NFL but thats just....like...my... opinion....man.....

My comparison to Freeney was more of an analogy that both are "one trick ponies". 

Freeney was considered "too short" to be a prototypical NFL DE and he was.  He did not have the height to be the kind of player that could be expected to bat down passes or otherwise create havoc in passing lanes.

I look at Key as being similar in that respect.  He does not have the all-around game expected of an NFL DE.  He is...like Freeney was...a one trick pony whose overall value is simply rushing the passer.  Could he be an OLB in the NFL?  I don't know...he was not known as someone who could cover a running back or TE in pass situations.

In terms of Key's weight, I do thing he got north of 260 before his senior season and 'played off' the fat by the time the season was over. 

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I hear you on the one trick ponies thing. I really think Key is a longshot to have a good, long career in the NFL...but I hope I'm wrong, I will always pull for LSU guys to do well (as long as they are not in our division!!!)

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On 2/22/2018 at 11:49 AM, Bonckers said:

That is a very good point. Even Dion Jordan was light, and didn't produce. Bruce Irvin, and Von Miller are the only litter players I saw make it work, and they both play LB and DE. They were both just under 250, and played in 4-3 defenses coming out. 

Danielle Hunter has played extremely well in the 250ish range for the Vikings.

Key is baffling. No doubt waiting to have surgery and all that weight he bragged about (which I meant wtf??) on twitter was the worst weight possible you can add -- lazy fat. Heard a lot of stuff that makes me just not want to look his way, but boy if he's there at the end of round 1 I think this team takes him. His talent just isn't something you come across very often, and I think with Cam Jordan in his ear amongst others he'd either fit in or fall out very quickly. The Aldon Smith comparison is legit from what I understand. It's a huge gamble. If we don't grab a tight end in FA then I fully expect us to target Hayden Hurst from USCe or Mark Andrews from OU. Their film is pretty impressive athletically. Sean likes the OU offensive system recall in terms of route trees and philosophy. 

Edited by Brian Milici
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Draft Projection

Rounds 1-2

Sources Tell Us

"You come back to the old question of what will a player do with more time and more money as a pro? Key's background tells you it could be a big problem for him. Not only that, but he had seven sacks over the last two years where he didn't have to beat the tackle." -- NFC Director of Scouting

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/arden-key?id=2560074

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